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Embargo ist machbar: Inhaltsverzeichnis

  1. Executive Summary

  2. Machbarkeitsstudien

Mythos-Buster Russisches Energieembargo

https://www.create-peace-now.org/embargo-fuer-frieden

Executive Summary

Why and HOW we need to bear the impacts of an embargo against Russia.

Russia had spent USD 62 billion on their war industry in 2020 and 2021. And earned about USD 63 billion from international oil and gas sales only in the third quarter of 2021

Despite the sanctions, Russia still has a significant income flow: more than EUR 50 bln were received from the EU since February 24th, and the number keeps growing.

On March 3rd alone, the EU received a gas delivery from Russian valued at EUR 660 million (also a consequence of record gas prices). (read more here)

Therefore, further sanctions are needed to reduce Russian income and stop the weapon and vehicle development.

Even with a total fuel embargo, the EU industry is safe!

Taking the most vulnerable Germany as an example: if the German populace agrees that turning off the heatings next winter would be acceptable if all other means fail, this would be a 100% guarantee to German industry. That is an emergency scenario.

Using data from Eurostat, we can argue that an embargo is possible without touching industry consumption at all, by cutting only private consumption.
In Germany, even if all Russian imports of 2045 PJ (petajoules) are cancelled, this means that still 1457 PJ are available which is more than the industry need of 1285 PJ. Assuming that the use of gas for power generation can be substituted by coal, then the leftover 172 PJ (14%) would allow to operating facilities such as hospitals at unchanged room temperature.

Read full analysis

Alternatively, bills can increase by 7-8%. There could be a EUR 200 to EUR 1200 per citizen of total economic loss. Is that too much?

The war itself is already affecting the economy.

Prolonging the crisis caused by war will result in much higher economic costs.

  • Any shortfall in supply would lead to higher prices and, consequently, higher inflation in Europe. Prices for wheat, corn, nickel, had all risen: wheat by 42%, corn by 62%, and nickel by 50%.

  • European and Russian aircraft are banned from each other’s air space. The result is that planes traveling between Europe and Asia must take longer and more expensive routes. Not only is this disruptive to passenger travel, but it also increases the cost and reduces the efficiency of transporting high-value merchandise.

  • The impacts can also spill over into other economies like the US because of the extensive trade between the US and Europe. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are major producers of commodities that are important in the production of semiconductors and batteries. If Russian and/or Ukrainian exports of these commodities were to be curtailed, the global price would rise and shortages could ensue, thereby hurting some US industries, adding to inflation, and reducing potential output.

The faster Russia collapses, the faster new economical solution will appear: Ukraine will become a wheat exporter again, the airspace above Russia and Ukraine will be open, refugees will stop flooding other countries, and new, fresh, started-from-the-blank-page trade contracts may be built between the EU and newborn smaller post-Russian republics.

It’s a divorce with Russia, and we shouldn’t come back into such an unhealthy relationship. In the long term, we can rearrange our energy sources.

Russia thinks all the companies will come back to them because they won’t survive without the Russian market. Let’s prove they are wrong. We have options on the table.

DoToHelp

What else can we do to stop the war?

  • For Ukrainians: Help Russian soldiers to sabotage, i.e. to refuse to fight, to destroy or bring the vehicles and weapons to Ukrainians. The EU or US could fund a green corridor for the soldiers to leave the war.

  • NATO close the sk... Nah, too dangerous, they won’t do that.

Everyone can help now! 

  • Join us! Visit demonstrations, help with the research, and more.

  • Sign petitions:
    - Petition to the EU government to stop import of the Russian fuel (FR); 
    - Greenpeace petition to German government to stop import of the Russian fuel (DE); 
    - Petition to German and the EU governments to stop import of the Russian fuel (ENG, DE);
    - Petition to the EU government to stop import of the Russian fuel (DE); 
    - Petition on the Bundestag website calling to stop import of the Russian fuel, to exclude Russia from SWIFT, and more sanctions (DE); 
    - Petition to the EU government to stop import of the Russian fuel and exclude Russia from SWIFT (IT); 
    - Petition to TotalEnergies company and the EU government calling to stop import of the Russian fuel (ENG); 
    - Open letter to Czech Government to support Russian fuel import ban (CZ).
    - Petition to the EU government to exclude Gazprom and Sberbank from SWIFT (ENG);

Machbarkeitsstudien

2. Machbarkeitsstudien

Importstopp ist machbar

  •  Holtemöller O., Schult C., Aktuelle Trends: Deutsche Gasspeicher erreichen jahreszeitüblichen Füllstand. Wirtschaft im Wandel [Internet]. 2022;28(2): Seite 26. Available from: https://www.iwh-halle.de/fileadmin/user_upload/publications/wirtschaft_im_wandel/wiwa_2022-02.pdf#page=4 "Seit [der Vorgängerstudie im März] hat sich die Situation jedoch deutlich verändert. Die Füllstände der deutschen Gasspeicher entsprechen mittlerweile dem für die Jahreszeit üblichen Niveau von etwa 50%, und sie dürften noch weiter steigen. Sollte es im Laufe der kommenden Monate zu einem Lieferstopp für russisches Gas kommen, könnte der Gasbedarf im Winter 2022/2023 wohl vollständig bedient werden zumal höhere Gaspreise die Nachfrage dämpfen wüden. Bei einem sehr harten Winter mit entsprechend hohem Gasverbrauch in den privaten Haushalten könnte es allerdings immer noch zu einem Engpass kommen." 

  • Gropp R. Brauchen wir ein Öl- und Gasembargo? Wirtschaft im Wandel [Internet]. 2022;28(2): Seite 25. Available from: https://www.iwh-halle.de/fileadmin/user_upload/publications/wirtschaft_im_wandel/wiwa_2022-02.pdf#page=3"Einige Beobachter, insbesondere aus der Industrie, haben aber argumentiert, dass speziell ein Gasembargo (bei Öl ist man weniger besorgt, und die EU hat ja auch einen Kompromiss beschlossen) im Winter zu frierenden Menschen und dem Abschalten ganzer Industriezweige führen würde. Ich denke, dass man diese Aussagen als von Eigeninteresse getriebene Schreckgespenste abtun kann. Denn es bleibt dabei unklar, warum eine Kombination von Wiederhochfahren der Kohle- und wohl auch Atomkraftwerke in Verbindung mit einem forcierten Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien sowie Energieeinsparungen (die sich durch die höheren Preise von selbst einstellen würden) und Flüssiggasimporten das Problem nicht lösen sollten."

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose. Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Fruehjahr 2022: Ein Alter- Natives Szenario: EU Ohne Energierohstoffe Aus Russland  Methodenbeschreibung, 2022. https://gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/GD22F_Hintergrund-Alternativszenario_final.pdf 

- Gemeinschaftswerk von 5 Wirtschaftsinstituten

- Lieferengpässe - wenn überhaupt - erst ab Jan/Feb 2023 (Abb. 2) - viel Zeit für Vorbereitung/Anpassung oder hoffentlich Ende des Krieges
- Nur im ungünstigsten Fall muss die Gasversorgung der Industrie eingestellt werden, am wahrscheinlichsten ist nur eine Drosselung notwendig (Abb. 4). In jedem Fall beschränken sich die Engpässe auf nur wenige Monate. 
- ähnlich wie bei Corona, kurzer Einbruch mit der schnellen Erholung, "V-shape" (Abb. 5)

Auswirkungen in Russland

Berichte über Gaslieferungen:

Kostenrechnungen:

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